The Wheat Quality Council’s Hard Winter Wheat Tour will cross Kansas May 12–14 as the crop faces widespread moisture stress and an early-May freeze in the western third of the state. Participants will drive set routes to evaluate crop condition and measure potential yields across historic wheat acres. 70% drought statewide on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor places the tour squarely in dry country.
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s weekly Kansas Crop Progress and Condition report shows the 2026 wheat crop developing ahead of normal and struggling for quality. About 78% of acres are rated very poor, poor or fair, with just 22% in the good-to-excellent categories. Winter wheat in Kansas is widely jointed and many fields are already heading, leaving little time to recover from stressors.
Kansas State and private models signal sharply reduced output this year, and federal reports will update production figures as the tour proceeds. Gregg Ibendahl’s May modeling projects Kansas yields between 36.6 and 41.2 bushels per acre, with a predicted average of 38.9 bu/acre average and state production near 238 million bushels production.
Yield outlook
Scouts in south-central Kansas report wide variability from poor to below average, with drought the primary yield limiter. Tim Turek said a late spring freeze left scattered white heads and that disease pressure was not the main concern for his area; some fields that retained subsoil moisture are at full berry and starting to mature rapidly. Farmers who saw good fall stands are now watching whether the grain will actually fill under dry, maturing conditions.
Clay Schemm near Sharon Springs described a mixed picture dependent on leftover subsoil moisture and spotty spring rains; his family recorded just a quarter inch from January through March and winds and warm winter conditions worsened drying. The crop in his area was roughly at the boot stage with about one-fifth of fields already showing heads, making early-May temperatures especially critical for final grain fill and test weight.
Regional impacts
Neighboring states reflect similar stresses. The Oklahoma Wheat Commission reports widespread drought stress and uneven rainfall, with nearly half of Oklahoma wheat rated poor to very poor and some fields already sprayed out or abandoned. Members of the Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association estimated the state’s 2026 wheat production at about 47.79 million bushels from roughly 2.06 million harvested acres, averaging about 23.11 bushels per acre.
Colorado advisers note the crop is running two to three weeks ahead of schedule, raising freeze-damage concerns even where limited moisture fell in early May. Nebraska planted a record-low 850,000 wheat acres last fall, and producers in western Nebraska describe conditions as dire, with some considering abandoning wheat in favor of corn or sorghum.
Cracked soils and accelerated maturity are likely to shape harvest decisions across Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska, and what does get harvested is expected to have elevated protein potential. Farmers in affected areas also face a compressed field calendar: RMA planting dates have been shifted in some counties and many producers will move quickly from corn or milo planting into harvest operations if wheat yields warrant it. The Wheat Quality Council Hard Winter Wheat Tour runs May 12–14 across Kansas.
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