U.S. ethanol production ticked higher in early May even as domestic gasoline use and exports weakened, according to EIA numbers analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association. Production rose 0.8 percent in the reported week to 1.02 million bpd, equal to about 42.71 million gallons per day. That output was slightly below the year-ago level but above the five-year average, underscoring steady plant operations amid softer demand.
The four-week average pace showed more strain, slipping 2.2 percent to roughly 1.05 million barrels per day, an annualized rate near 16.09 billion gallons. Year-over-year comparisons were mixed: the weekly figure was about 0.3 percent lower than the same week last year while remaining 3.4 percent above the five-year mean. Those divergent signals point to near-term volatility even with production near the million-barrel mark.
Ethanol inventories edged up while regional stocks diverged, with supplies higher across most U.S. regions except the East Coast. Total ethanol stocks rose 0.5 percent to 26.0 million barrels, leaving inventories about 3.3 percent above last year and nearly 12 percent above the five-year average. The inventory build leaves supply comfortable relative to current runs, which may limit pressure for immediate production cuts.
Demand and Exports
On the demand side, gasoline supplied—a proxy for domestic fuel use—fell 3.2 percent to 8.81 million barrels per day, marking a four-week low and weighing on ethanol blending needs. Refiner and blender net ethanol inputs declined 1.6 percent over the same reporting interval, reflecting the weaker gasoline flows. At the same time, ethanol exports contracted sharply, dropping 18.2 percent to about 139,000 barrels per day during the week, a 18.2% export drop that subtracts another outlet for U.S. plant output.
These flows mean ethanol plants kept running near recent levels, but softer domestic fuel demand and the pullback in shipments abroad could limit momentum for further production gains. With inventories elevated and a sliding four-week production average, margins for some producers may come under pressure if weaker gasoline demand persists. The data do not show a broad shutdown trend, but they signal tighter demand dynamics compared with earlier in the year.
Market implications
The Renewable Fuels Association flagged the numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration as the basis for the weekly snapshot, reflecting conditions for the week ending May 1, 2026. Data through that reporting week show production up modestly, inventories above multi-year averages, and exports and gasoline supplied moving lower, a combination that will influence mill grind and corn use decisions in the near term.
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