The USDA's May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projects higher U.S. red meat output in 2027, forecasting total red meat production at 109 billion pounds, above 2026 levels as gains in pork and poultry offset reduced beef production. The agency cites improved herd productivity and heavier weights as the main drivers behind the higher forecast. This outlook could influence domestic pork supplies and market dynamics for processors and packers.
Pork production outlook
Pork production for 2027 is expected to reach 28.255 billion pounds, according to the WASDE, even though farrowings are projected to show only limited growth. USDA says improved sow productivity will support larger pig crops and increased slaughter, and it also projects heavier hog carcass weights in 2027. Those factors together lift overall pork tonnage despite a modest breeding herd expansion.
The USDA raised its 2026 forecast for total red meat and poultry production to 108.4 billion pounds, a 0.1 billion pound increase from the prior month, driven by stronger pork, broiler and turkey outputs that more than offset lower beef volumes. The agency nudged 2026 pork production up to 27.985 billion pounds, noting expected production gains in the second half of the year that should outpace earlier second-quarter losses. The WASDE report also lowered the 2026 average barrow and gilt price to $68.38 per hundredweight, $0.75 under last month's estimate, and projects the 2027 average at $67/cwt.
Supply and weights
USDA emphasizes that productivity per sow—more pigs weaned per litter and better survivability—will be the primary mechanism increasing pork output rather than a large expansion in the breeding herd. Heavier carcass weights are expected to add pounds to slaughter totals, amplifying the effect of higher pig crops on overall production. Those combined supply-side changes are central to the agency's upward revision for 2027 pork volume.
Trade and markets
On the export side, USDA projects 2027 pork exports will reach 7.330 billion pounds, driven by increased U.S. production and competitive pricing in international markets. For 2026, pork exports are forecast at 7.232 billion pounds, with USDA noting improved global demand, particularly across the Western Hemisphere, in the second half of the year. Those export projections factor into the overall supply-demand balance and influence expected domestic prices and slaughter rates.
The WASDE release ties the production and trade outlooks to price expectations, with lower average prices projected for 2027 as supply expands. Producers and packers will watch second-half 2026 slaughter and carcass-weight trends for confirmation of the trajectory that USDA laid out in its May report. The report projects 2027 pork exports at 7.330 billion pounds.
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