USDA Economic Research Service projections show U.S. pork exports are expected to continue growing through 2035 and to remain ahead of chicken and beef in export volume. The outlook is based on the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2035 (February 2026) and the April 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Analysts point to both demand-side and supply-side forces shaping the outlook for U.S. pork.
Rising incomes in key importing countries and a projected weakening of the U.S. dollar are expected to lift demand for red meat and poultry from overseas buyers. At the same time, steady gains in domestic pork production are supporting exportable supplies. Producers are recording increases in several production metrics that expand marketable pork volumes.
U.S. pork exports are projected to increase 8.6% rise from an expected 7.2 billion pounds in 2026 to 7.8 billion pounds by 2035, according to the USDA projections. Those figures reflect slower growth in competing exporting regions and stronger foreign demand, rather than a single-year shock or policy intervention.
Production drivers
Growth in U.S. pork output is being driven by higher average slaughter weights, increases in pigs per litter and larger breeding inventories, which together raise carcass output per sow and per marketed pig. These production-side gains expand the volume available for export without requiring major expansion in the national breeding herd beyond current inventory trends.
Trade dynamics
Environmental policy changes in the European Union are expected to constrain pork production and reduce the EU's export growth over the projection period, improving U.S. competitiveness in global markets. Coupled with currency movements and income growth abroad, that dynamic helps explain why U.S. pork export volume is forecast to outpace chicken and beef exports through 2035.
Market data underpinning the forecast show the U.S. industry clearing a path to new volumes in the coming years: by 2029, pork exports are expected to exceed the previous 7.3 billion-pound record. The USDA projections and the April 2026 WASDE are the basis for these outlooks, which carry forward current production trends and near-term global demand assumptions.
Producers, processors and exporters will watch trade flows and feed costs as the sector moves toward the projected 7.8 billion pounds export level in 2035. The USDA Agricultural Projections to 2035 and the April 2026 WASDE provide the latest official numeric basis for that forecast.
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