U.S. farm groups say 2026 could bring a surge in agricultural exports to Cuba as the island’s private sector grows and food needs rise amid energy shortages. Paul Johnson, chair of the United States Agriculture Coalition for Cuba, called the moment important after a March trip where he saw rolling blackouts and disruptions to irrigation and refrigeration systems that have hit production. Cuban Ambassador Lianys Torres Rivera warned participants at an embassy event that those disruptions have contributed to a 40% drop in production, creating urgent demand for food imports and assistance.
Private-sector openings
Industry officials argue the expanding private sector provides a way for U.S. exporters to sell directly to Cuban businesses without routing deals through Havana, a structure that fits current U.S. policy priorities. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other senior officials have emphasized private‑sector development as a policy aim, and recent U.S. restrictions on oil shipments included carveouts that permit resale to Cuba’s private sector. Those policy signals, industry representatives say, create an opportunity to grow bilateral ag trade while maintaining political pressure on the Cuban government.
U.S. exporters are already seeing movement in 2026: rice shipments to Cuba in the first two months of the year were reported at roughly five times the pace seen earlier, a jump that USA Rice president Peter Bachmann called evidence the market is heating up. Rice shipments up fivefold, Bachmann said, adding that the expanding private market has potential to broaden into other commodities such as dairy, horticulture and grains.
Policy hurdles
The largest commercial barrier for U.S. agricultural sellers remains financing: Cuban importers typically must pay cash up front because short‑term credit access is restricted. Bachmann and other industry leaders warn that as Cuba’s economy strains, the inability of buyers to obtain credit could throttle export growth. Limited short-term credit for Cuban importers is the single biggest supply constraint cited by U.S. exporters, and alleviating it would require a statutory change in U.S. law, industry groups say.
Some trade-support measures could be implemented without new legislation, according to the United States Agriculture Coalition for Cuba: options include issuing general licenses to allow U.S. investment in private agricultural operations and using USDA export programs such as Foreign Market Development (FMD) and the Market Access Program (MAP) to support market development in Cuba. But opening formal credit lines for Cuban buyers would need congressional authorization and a clear policy signal from the administration, Johnson said.
Other obstacles depend on changes in Cuba’s domestic policies. Dalton Henry of U.S. Wheat Associates noted that government control in sectors like flour milling has kept U.S. wheat out of parts of the Cuban market, forcing buyers to turn to European and Canadian suppliers despite geographic proximity. Henry estimated that if U.S. exporters captured parity with Caribbean market shares, they could access roughly a half‑million‑ton wheat market on the island.
Industry representatives say Secretary Rubio’s ties to Florida’s Cuban community may give him negotiating credibility in any talks over trade or food assistance, and they hope Washington and Havana can reach practical arrangements that expand U.S. food shipments while advancing private‑sector growth. Lawmakers, officials and exporters will be watching whether the administration signals support for statutory changes to allow credit access and investment that industry groups argue are needed to scale exports in 2026 and beyond.
Photo - www.agri-pulse.com
