Farmer sentiment slipped in April, with the Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropping from 127 in March to 121 AEB index. The pullback was driven more by weaker readings on current conditions than by changes in expectations for the future. The monthly survey shows the Current Conditions Index fell sharply while the Future Expectations Index registered a smaller drop.
The Current Conditions Index dropped by 11 points and the Future Expectations Index fell by 4 points in April. Only 37% of respondents said they expected good times for U.S. agriculture over the next five years, and producers remain divided by sector: about 31% expect good times for crop producers while 69% expect good times for livestock producers. These splits underline a continuing gap in outlook between crop and livestock operations.
Concerns about production inputs remained high: 46% cite input costs as their top issue, while the share naming input availability rose from 11% to 14% month over month. Fewer producers said the U.S. is headed in the “right direction,” with that share falling to 57% in April from 65% in March. Expectations that land values will be higher in five years also weakened in the April results.
Impacts on finances
Only 15% of respondents reported their farm operation was better off in April than a year earlier. Looking ahead 12 months, 28% expected worse financial performance while 25% expected better, indicating cautious near-term sentiment. The Farm Capital Investment Index declined 9 points to 44, its lowest reading in over a year, signaling reduced willingness to make large capital investments. About 58% of respondents agreed that their per-unit fixed costs are low relative to the most efficient peers, with 9% saying they strongly agreed.
The survey added questions on the Iran conflict, which began in late February 2026 and has affected fertilizer and natural gas markets globally. Two-thirds expect income decline—roughly two out of three respondents said the conflict will reduce their net farm income in 2026. Among those who planted corn in 2025, about half expected corn breakeven prices to rise up to 6%, 14% expected a 6%–9% increase, and 37% expected breakeven prices to climb 10% or more.
Farmland and outlook
Short-term farmland value expectations eased, with the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declining from 125 to 121, while the long-term index fell from 159 to 155. Producers cited alternative investments, interest rates and inflation as the three biggest factors influencing farmland values in the coming years.
The April barometer survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the United States from April 13–17, 2026.
Image credit: ag.purdue.edu
