Grain prices were mixed heading into the weekend, with winter wheat pulling back on profit-taking while corn and soybeans recorded modest gains. Traders said wheat’s earlier lift, tied in part to higher crude prices, left contracts vulnerable to technical selling that pushed some front-month wheat futures down by more than 1%. Markets were otherwise quiet as participants weighed weather forecasts and export data.
Weather and outlook
NOAA’s short-range maps showed a system forecast to bring widespread rain — generally 1 inch or more — from Kansas and Nebraska through Illinois between Saturday and Tuesday, a read that could ease early-season moisture concerns across the central Corn Belt. NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook then predicts cooler-than-normal conditions for much of the Midwest and Plains between May 1 and May 7, with some drier-than-normal pockets developing across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
Corn moved in a narrow range on Friday, with July futures slipping about 0.25 cents to $4.6375 and December adding roughly 0.75 cents to $4.8425 as traders traded around nearby weather and demand signals. USDA showed combined old- and new-crop corn sales of 69.1 million bushels and export shipments of 76.9 million bushels for the most recent week, leaving cumulative sales for the 2025-26 marketing year at 2.917 billion bushels, roughly 28% ahead of last year’s pace.
Export demand and soybeans
Soybeans picked up light technical buying, helped by strength in soymeal, with July soybean futures up 3.75 cents to $11.7850 and August trading near $11.7150. The soy complex saw gains in soymeal (about +0.82%) and soyoil (about +0.39%) as traders adjusted positions ahead of planting-season weather. Last week’s soybean export sales reached 13.6 million bushels and shipments totaled 28.2 million bushels, leaving cumulative sales for the 2025-26 marketing year at 1.415 billion bushels, roughly 18% behind a year earlier.
The International Grains Council nudged its 2026-27 global soybean production forecast slightly lower (about a 36.7 million-bushel cut) while raising usage by roughly 73.5 million bushels, trimming projected ending stocks to 2.904 billion bushels. University of Minnesota marketing specialist Ed Usset noted that current prices are offering at least breakeven levels for many producers and urged farmers to begin locking in average prices for 2026 crops rather than waiting for a single top-market outcome.
Wheat and global supply notes
Winter wheat retreated on profit-taking and technical pressure: July Chicago SRW fell 3.5 cents to $6.1675 and July Kansas City HRW lost 9.5 cents to $6.6975. Weekly U.S. combined old- and new-crop wheat sales ran about 5.0 million bushels with shipments near 19.3 million bushels, leaving cumulative 2025-26 sales at 900.3 million bushels, about 15% ahead of last year’s pace.
Outside the U.S., Russian consultancy IKAR lowered its 2026 wheat harvest estimate by roughly 36.7 million bushels to a new projection of 3.307 billion bushels, and FranceAgriMer reported 83% of France’s soft wheat crop rated good-to-excellent. Market activity measures were modest: corn settlements on Thursday tallied 358,932 contracts, soybean settlements were 275,143 contracts and CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 155,395 contracts.
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