Farmers for Free Trade executive director Brian Kuehl says he is optimistic the United States can reach a trade deal with India after a delegation spent this week in the United States negotiating. Kuehl told Brownfield the talks are underway but that the negotiating text has not been made public, leaving details unclear. He said the size of India’s market makes the effort worthwhile for U.S. agriculture if barriers can be addressed.
India’s population and consumer growth could create significant demand for American produce, Kuehl said, noting the country has long been a buyer of U.S. fruit and nuts. Major U.S. buyer: apples, almonds are examples he cited of products that have found established markets in India. He added that securing low tariff rates and removing non-tariff barriers will be critical to expanding those sales.
Kuehl also pointed to feed and fuel opportunities, including sales of Dried Distillers Grains and ethanol that would support U.S. corn markets. Potential DDGS and ethanol demand, he said, could come into sharper focus because India faces serious urban air quality problems and is still building ethanol capacity. He argued that increased U.S. ethanol shipments would provide an export outlet for corn and help address India’s fuel needs.
Trade details unknown
Despite the optimism, Kuehl emphasized that negotiators have not released specifics about tariff cuts, quotas, or sanitary and phytosanitary measures under discussion. He said those non-tariff barriers can be as significant as headline tariff rates in shaping market access, and that detailed text will determine which U.S. sectors gain ground. Farmers’ groups and exporters will be watching for provisions that open predictable, long-term channels for agricultural shipments.
Dairy trade challenges
Kuehl said he is skeptical a U.S.-India deal would deliver major benefits for U.S. dairy producers because India already has the World's largest dairy herd. That scale, he noted, complicates prospects for substantial U.S. dairy export growth even if tariffs fall. He urged negotiators to be realistic about sector-specific dynamics when assessing gains for American farmers.
Kuehl repeated that the U.S. side remains engaged and hopeful the talks will produce a new agreement, but stressed that concrete outcomes depend on the final negotiating text. He said any effective deal would need concrete tariff reductions and the removal of non-tariff barriers to create sizable, reliable markets for U.S. agricultural exports.
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