Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow emeritus at the International Food Policy Research Institute, told attendees at the Sosland Purchasing Seminar in Kansas City that geopolitics has moved to the forefront of agricultural markets. He said the current disruption of shipping routes in the Middle East has created a supply shock that is pushing energy and input costs higher, with Fertilizer prices rising and margins under pressure for some growers. Glauber noted that while grain and oilseed prices have not surged uniformly, the longer key shipping lanes remain constrained, the greater the risk to input supply chains and next season’s production.
Glauber described the present situation primarily as a supply-driven shock: higher fertilizer and fuel costs are squeezing margins, but crop prices have been comparatively subdued so far. The central question for markets is whether sustained input shortages and high prices will reduce plantings or yields enough to lift crop prices materially. He emphasized variability across regions and cropping systems, saying impacts will depend on when growers need to buy inputs and how long disruptions persist.
For producers who purchased fertilizer and other inputs before the disruption, immediate effects will be muted until the next planting window, while producers purchasing later in the season — including those in the southern hemisphere — face greater exposure if prices remain elevated. Glauber warned that delayed or reduced fertilizer application could become a production issue only if high prices and limited availability persist into the planting period.
Trade disruptions and markets
Recent trade frictions have reshaped export flows, and agriculture has been directly affected by shifts in sourcing and demand. Glauber stressed that China is and will remain a major buyer of agricultural commodities, noting that China remains top buyer globally for many crops, and that private exporters respond to market signals across destinations. He added that government policies can facilitate long-term market access through negotiated agreements, but unilateral actions that trigger retaliation can harm agricultural exporters.
Glauber argued that diversification of export markets is a commercial process led by private firms, supported by government trade policy where appropriate. He said the U.S. can expand access through free trade and multilateral deals, while avoiding measures that prompt trade partners to redirect purchases away from U.S. suppliers. Maintaining predictable market access is essential for commodities that depend on large-volume buyers.
Feed and biofuel demand
U.S. corn exports have seen pockets of increased demand tied to regional shifts in livestock trade, and Mexico remains a key market for U.S. corn even if temporary disruptions to cattle movements ease. Soybean meal exports are being supported by rising domestic crush tied to biodiesel production, since more soybeans are being processed for oil at home rather than shipped whole. Glauber said that if biodiesel demand grows as expected, the U.S. will have more soybean meal available for export, supporting crush margins and meal volumes abroad.
Glauber also highlighted the upcoming sunset review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, noting the review is slated for this July and that agricultural stakeholders should prioritize stability. He recommended the guiding principle for the review be to "do no harm," saying that predictable rules with minimal disruption are in the best interest of U.S. farmers and their trading partners.
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