Unpredictable U.S. trade policy and shifting tariff actions are complicating planning for egg producers, with the clearest effect showing up in feed costs, Texas Tech University economist Stephen Devadoss told attendees at the Egg Industry Center’s annual forum at PEAK 2026 in Minneapolis. Producers are facing a moving target for input prices and policy rules as markets and rules change on short notice. The volatility makes capital and flock decisions harder to pin down.
Corn and soybean meal are the industry’s two primary feed inputs, and Devadoss emphasized how sensitive those markets are to trade disruptions. "Corn and soybean are anti-profit for egg producers," he said, pointing out that even small changes in export demand or tariffs can swing margins for vertically integrated and independent egg operations alike. Input-cost swings affect decisions from feed contracting to flock size.
A surprising, near-term effect of the recent tariff environment has been extra domestic grain availability as exports fell under retaliatory measures, which has put downward pressure on feed prices. That dynamic has provided some breathing room for producers facing high input costs, but it depends on the persistence of reduced exports rather than structural changes in demand. lower feed prices
Feed costs and trade
The bigger problem for flock and facility planning is uncertainty: frequent changes in tariff policy make it difficult to forecast costs far enough ahead to justify investments. Egg production has an inelastic supply response because hens continue to lay when prices slip, and producers cannot quickly cut output without significant operational disruption. At the same time, demand shocks from recent highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks have added to the planning challenge by creating unpredictable market demand.
Devadoss noted recent trade deals with the EU, Japan, South Korea, the UK and several smaller partners, but he also flagged unresolved trade relations with major markets including Canada, Mexico, India and Brazil. Those unresolved relationships leave export prospects and export-driven price signals uncertain for grain markets that feed livestock and poultry.
Legal and policy shifts have amplified the uncertainty: a Supreme Court ruling earlier this year found the prior emergency-powers tariff authority unlawful, and the administration followed with a new 10% global tariff applied broadly to imports. Producers told forum attendees they are watching how those legal and policy moves feed through to commodity markets and input costs.
Policy uncertainty and planning
The federal government also moved to cushion crop markets by sending a $12 billion subsidy to corn and soybean producers to offset market disruptions and higher input costs, a step Devadoss said could help stabilize domestic feed supplies. He also acknowledged that previous presidential tariffs had arguments in their favor — that some trading partners imposed higher barriers or violated rules — while arguing that tariff levels in recent rounds had been excessive. The 10% global tariff expires in July 2026.
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