Climatologists have released early forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as farmers prepare for planting and fieldwork. Colorado State University’s initial outlook calls for 13 named storms this season, with 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, numbers that sit slightly below 30-year historical averages. The Atlantic season officially begins June 1, so these projections aim to give producers and agribusinesses a head start on risk planning.
CSU compared its counts to 30-year averages — 14.4 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes — and attributes the below-average tilt primarily to expected changes in large-scale climate drivers. Forecasters note a likely shift from weak La Niña toward El Niño conditions during the peak months, which typically increases Atlantic vertical wind shear and suppresses storm formation.
Sea surface temperature patterns also factor into the outlook: waters in the western tropical Atlantic are running warmer than normal while the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are slightly cooler. CSU says those patterns, combined with an anticipated El Niño, are expected to be the dominant influences on basin activity for 2026.
What forecasters predict
Other forecast sources offer similar, slightly different ranges. AccuWeather projects 11–16 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes and 2–4 major hurricanes for the Atlantic in 2026. The National Hurricane Center issues its long-range outlook closer to the official start of the season; CSU plans follow-up updates on June 10, July 8 and Aug. 5.
CSU’s early outlook also gives regional landfall probabilities that matter to U.S. producers: 32% U.S. landfall chance for the entire U.S. coastline (historic average ~43%), 15% chance for the East Coast including the Florida peninsula (historic average ~21%), and 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas (historic average ~27%). The Caribbean probability is shown at 35% (historic average ~47%). These percentages are intended as seasonal odds, not forecasts of specific storms.
Implications for growers
For agriculture, even a below-average season can bring a destructive, disruptive landfall. One storm hitting productive areas can damage row crops, specialty crops, storage sites and farm infrastructure, interrupt harvest logistics, and disrupt labor and input deliveries. Early seasonal outlooks give growers time to review crop insurance coverage, finalize irrigation and drainage plans, secure equipment and supplies, and prioritize vulnerable fields for harvest or protection.
Producers should use these early forecasts as planning tools rather than definitive predictions. The Atlantic season begins June 1, 2026, and CSU and other forecast groups will refine their numbers as ocean and atmospheric conditions evolve.
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