The Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) showed improved producer confidence in March 2026, with the headline index at Index 127. The monthly survey, based on roughly 400 U.S. agricultural producers, reports both current conditions and future expectations that help frame near-term market outlooks. The AEB’s sub-indices read 126 for the Index of Current Conditions and 128 for the Index of Future Expectations, signaling modestly stronger beliefs about coming months than present conditions.
Respondents were split by how they expect land values to move over the next 12 months: about 10% expect declines while roughly 35% expect increases. Producers expecting higher land values reported stronger sentiment on nearly every AEB measure compared with those expecting declines. That split provides a useful lens for interpreting how attitudes about farm finances translate into land-market expectations.
Sentiment differences were clear on investment and financial outlook measures. The Farm Capital Investment index — where readings below 100 mean more respondents view now as a bad time to invest — was 34 for the group expecting lower land values and 72 for the group expecting higher values. The Financial Performance index averaged 102 in March; it was 93 among those who expect declines and 111 among those who expect increases.
Sentiment and Investment
Those expecting falling land values are notably more cautious about capital spending, according to the AEB’s investment measure. The wide gap in the Farm Capital Investment index suggests the two groups would behave very differently on machinery, building, and other farm investments if their expectations materialize. Input cost concerns were dominant across the sample, but a larger share of the lower-expectation group named high input costs as their biggest worry.
Livestock composition also differed across the groups. About one-third of all March respondents derived more than half their revenue from livestock; among producers expecting higher land values, 49% were livestock producers compared with 15% in the group expecting declines. Inflation and interest-rate expectations were similar across both groups, but those expecting higher land values were more likely to say the U.S. is headed in the right direction.
Drivers of Land Values
When asked which factor most influences land values in their area, producers expecting declines most often cited net farm income, while those expecting increases pointed to alternative investments. The survey asked respondents to name the single most important factor from a fixed list; it did not ask whether that factor was exerting a positive or negative effect. Still, the divergence suggests the two groups view local market pressure through different economic channels.
The March 2026 AEB results therefore tie land value expectations to concrete measures of current sentiment, planned capital spending, and primary concerns such as input costs, with the survey based on responses from roughly 400 U.S. agricultural producers.
Photo - ag.purdue.edu
