Illinois professional farm managers expect U.S. farmland values to fall modestly in 2026, with half of respondents forecasting a 1%–5% decline this year. The Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers' annual survey found that 50% of contributors see that small drop, while a smaller share predicted larger declines or stable prices. Ray Brownfield, designated managing broker for Peoples Company, said demand remains but emphasized farmland is a long-term investment and sellers need accurate market guidance. 50% of managers told surveyors they expect values to ease rather than spike, signaling a cautious outlook for prospective buyers and sellers.
Market price drivers
Managers cited tighter farm cash and higher input costs as immediate influences on the land market, and many expect sales methods to shift as a result. Brownfield said auction activity may ease if farmer liquidity tightens and private-treaty deals could rise to allow more negotiation time. He urged sellers to get professional appraisals and local market advice so listing prices reflect current conditions rather than past peaks.
Fertilizer supply disruptions and rising nutrient costs were named as a key pressure on farm finances. The survey and Brownfield's conversations with farmers pointed to global supply risks that can push fertilizer prices higher and alter cropping decisions for 2026. Those input pressures feed directly into who can afford to buy land and how much they are willing to pay, tightening demand in the near term.
Energy, leases and data
Renewable-energy development and alternative land uses are increasingly part of farm managers' work: the report found most managers have handled wind or solar projects, and a large majority expect growth in solar. 92% expect solar projects to expand, while a smaller share anticipates more wind developments. About one in ten managers reported involvement with data centers, reflecting rising interest in nonfarm uses of rural sites tied to digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence needs.
Survey respondents were also asked about rental arrangements and outlooks for cash rent. Only a minority expect cash rents to rise for the 2026–27 cycle, with most managers forecasting rents will hold roughly steady. Traditional cash rent remains the most common lease form among respondents, while crop-share and variable cash rent arrangements continue to be used in many areas.
Brownfield highlighted potential policy and market shifts that could affect corn demand and land values, including expanded ethanol use. He noted that roughly one-third of national corn production currently goes into ethanol and said year-round E15 availability would push that share substantially higher, potentially tightening corn balances and affecting land economics for corn acres.
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